Dan Green · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Lean R

Green is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Green at 72¢ against Soto's 30¢, down 6¢ since August 3. The polling average has Green ahead by 2 points, and Soto leads 1.6 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Green · Republican contract

72.0¢

▼ 6.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Dan Green by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 78¢ · low 65¢Oct 12

Dan GreenRepublican

72.0¢

Darren SotoDemocratic · incumbent

30.0¢

94,012 traded · 67,381 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Green v Soto

Metric by metric

Green

Soto

72.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

30.0¢

$1.30M

RaisedFEC, through July 29

$2.16M

$363.2K

Cash on handFEC, through July 29

$1.19M

41%

Latest pollSEA Polling, Soto sponsor · Aug 30

41%

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2017

The 2026 race

Florida 9th District

Latest poll

R+2

SEA Polling, Soto sponsor, August 30.

Prior result

D+12.6

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Darren Soto.

Fundraising

1.6 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 29.