Elections Intelligence

John James

MIGovernor: G under a starred pediment
CHALLENGER Likely DThe seat Underdog
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Likely D

James is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Likely D. The market has James at 6.8¢ against Benson's 93.4¢, down 6.2¢ since July 31. The polling average has Benson ahead by 7.9 points, and Benson leads 1.3 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
James · Republican contract
6.8¢
▼ 6.2¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on John James by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 16¢ · low 6.7¢Oct 12
John JamesRepublican
6.8¢
Jocelyn BensonDemocratic
93.4¢
Mike Dugganindependent
0.5¢

398,334 traded · 242,852 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

James v Benson

Metric by metric
James
Benson
6.8¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
93.4¢
$9.09M
RaisedState filings, through August 24
$12.58M
$1.07M
Cash on handState filings, through August 24
$5.93M
45%
Latest pollWedgewood Polls · Oct 9
55%
U.S. Representativesince 2023
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Michigan Governor
Polling average
D+7.9

Average of 14 pollsters, September 14 to October 9.

Prior result
D+10.6

2022 general election, won by Gretchen Whitmer.

Fundraising
1.3 to 1

Raised, through August 24.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.