Iowa U.S. Senate
OPEN SEAT
Also on the ballot: Thomas Laehn (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 7-point Republican hold in 2020, priced at 59¢ today.
Toss-up
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Toss-upR 59¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Polling · Toss-upR+4.6 — Suffolk, Aug 26.Prior result · Lean RR+6.59 in 2020.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 59¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
R+4.6
Suffolk ↗ A
Aug 19 - 22 · n=500 LV
R+4.6
INDEPENDENT
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+6.59
Ernst, Joni (R)
51.74 — 45.15 · 2020 general election
def. Greenfield, Theresa (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
1.6 to 1
Josh Turek$6.28M
Ashley Hinson$10.22M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.