FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: a 7-point Republican hold in 2020, priced at 58¢ today.
Toss-up
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upD+0.6 (average of 11 pollsters, Oct 6).Market · Toss-upR 58¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Lean RR+6.59 in 2020.PollsD+0.6MarketR 58¢2020 resultR+6.6
MarketR 58¢PollsD+0.62020R+6.6
Market favors Hinson, but polls favor Turek.
Polling moved 6 points toward the Republican over 28 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Average of the latest poll from each of 11 pollsters in the last 30 days.
Earlier polls · 16
Cygnal ↗A+Sep 9 to 11 · n=500 LVD+0.2Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation sponsorD+0.2 · Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation sponsor · counts as D+2.2 at half weight
Cygnal ↗A+Jun 16 to 19 · n=600 LVR+1.8Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation sponsorR+1.8 · Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation sponsor · counts as D+0.2 at half weight
GSG ↗B-Jun 8 to 11 · n=1,000 LVD+2Turek sponsorD+2 · Turek sponsor · counts as EVEN at half weight
PPP ↗BJun 3 to 4 · n=557 RVEVENDemocratic Senatorial Campaign Committee sponsorEVEN · Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee sponsor · counts as R+2 at half weight
Echelon ↗AApr 3 to 9 · n=377 LVD+1NetChoice sponsor
GBAO ↗BMar 10 to 16 · n=1,200 LVR+4Turek sponsorR+4 · Turek sponsor · counts as R+6 at half weight
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+6.6
Joni Ernst (R)
51.7% to 45.1% · 2020 general election
def. Theresa Greenfield (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Hinson leads 1.6 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.