FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 14-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 92.4¢ today.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Prior result · Likely RR+13.66 in 2022.Market · Likely RR 92.4¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.2022 resultR+13.7MarketR 92.4¢
MarketR 92.4¢2022R+13.7
No polls of this matchup. The market favors Mazzei.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Total receipts, as filed through August 10, 2026.What these filings sayJoint gubernatorial ticket committee, figures cover the ticket, not the individual; figures cover the stated reporting period.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.