Tom Barrett
MI-7What the Signal reads
Toss-up
Barrett is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Toss-up. The market has Barrett at 41¢ against Lawrence's 61¢, up 8¢ since August 3. The polling average is even, and Barrett leads 5.6 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Barrett · Republican contract
41.0¢
▲ 8.0¢since August 3
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Tom Barrett by name.
85,321 traded · 63,693 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Barrett v Lawrence
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Michigan 7th DistrictPolling average
Even
Average of 2 pollsters, June 30 to August 13.
Prior result
R+3.8
2024 general election, won by Tom Barrett.
Fundraising
5.6 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.