Michigan U.S. Senate — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 2-point Democratic hold in 2020, priced at 63¢ today.

Toss-up

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Toss-upD 63¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Toss-upD+1.68 in 2020.Polling · Toss-upD+1 — Fabrizio, Aug 20.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 4¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 63¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+1

Fabrizio ↗ A- Aug 9 - 11 · n=877 LV D+1 R SPONSOR

Susquehanna ↗ A Aug 11 - 17 · n=800 LV D+7.4 INDEPENDENT

TIPP ↗ A+ Aug 6 - 10 · n=1,215 LV D+3.1 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+1.68

Peters, Gary (D)

49.9 — 48.22 · 2020 general election

def. James, John (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.3 to 1

Abdul El-Sayed$14.53M

Mike Rogers$10.90M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-15 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.