FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 2-point Democratic hold in 2020, priced at 68¢ today.
Lean D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Lean DD 68¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Toss-upD+3.4 (average of 20 pollsters, Oct 10).Prior result · Toss-upD+1.68 in 2020.MarketD 68¢PollsD+3.42020 resultD+1.7
MarketD 68¢PollsD+3.42020D+1.7
Market and polls both favor El-Sayed.
The market moved 4¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Torchlight Strategies ↗B-Sep 15 to 19 · n=643 LVR+1.3Common Sense for America PAC sponsorR+1.3 · Common Sense for America PAC sponsor · counts as D+0.7 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of 20 pollsters in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 15, 2026; El-Sayed leads 1.3 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.