South Carolina 1st District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 17-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 75¢ today.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Lean RR 75¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+16.61 in 2024.

Signal clarityLow — no pollingas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 75¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

GQR ↗ A Jul 15 - 22 · n=400 LV · HYPOTHETICAL MATCHUP Smith+2 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+16.61

Nancy Mace (R)

58.22 — 41.6 · 2024 general election

def. Michael B. Moore (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

4.1 to 1

Nancy Lacore$2.28M

Jenny Costa Honeycutt$556.4K

PULLED 08-25 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.