FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: a 17-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 73¢ today.
Lean R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upR+3.7 (average of 3 pollsters, Oct 1).Market · Lean RR 73¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+16.61 in 2024.PollsR+3.7MarketR 73¢2024 resultR+16.6
MarketR 73¢PollsR+3.72024R+16.6
Market and polls both favor Honeycutt.
The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days · polling moved 5 points toward the Republican over 21 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
R+3.7
co/efficient ↗BSep 30 to Oct 1 · n=837 LVR+6Thank You For Your Attention To This Matter PAC sponsorR+6 · Thank You For Your Attention To This Matter PAC sponsor · counts as R+4 at half weight
PPP ↗BSep 9 to 10 · n=536 RVR+1The Bench sponsorR+1 · The Bench sponsor · counts as R+3 at half weight
GQR ↗AJul 15 to 22 · n=400 LVR+2House Majority PAC sponsorR+2 · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as R+4 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+16.6
Nancy Mace (R)
58.2% to 41.6% · 2024 general election
def. Michael B. Moore (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Lacore leads 4 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.