Tennessee 5th District

OPEN SEATLikely RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedTennessee redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 7003, signed on May 7, 2026. The plan splits Shelby County, home to Memphis, among the 5th, 8th and 9th districts. The 5th leaves Davidson County (Nashville). It now joins part of Shelby County with 16 counties across West and Middle Tennessee, including Maury, Montgomery and Williamson. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +17.8 to Trump +23.1 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗

Andrew Ogles (R) has held this seat since 2023 and is not on the November ballot; the district was redrawn in May 2026.

PresidentialR+17.8→R+23.1Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+17.8) and the new (R+23.1). Same ballots, new map.

FTP Race Signal

FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.

This district was redrawn in May 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 92.8¢ Republican.

Likely R

Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R

Polling · Lean RR+5 (Impact Research, Oct 1).Prior result · Likely RR+17.38 in 2024.Market · Likely RR 92.8¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.

Market and polls both favor Hatcher.

Polling moved 3 points toward the Democrat over 38 days. As of October 12.

Market

BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 92.8¢

Kalshi party market · checked 2:09 PM ET

View market on Kalshi ↗

Polling

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above

R+5

Impact Research ↗ B Sep 28 to Oct 1 · n=552 LV R+5 D-leaning firm

The latest poll on file.

Earlier polls · 1

Impact Research ↗ B Aug 19 to 24 · n=500 LV R+8 Molder sponsor R+8 · Molder sponsor · counts as R+10 at half weight

Prior result

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above

R+17.4

Andrew Ogles (R)

56.9% to 39.5% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesTennessee redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 7003, signed on May 7, 2026. The plan splits Shelby County, home to Memphis, among the 5th, 8th and 9th districts. The 5th leaves Davidson County (Nashville). It now joins part of Shelby County with 16 counties across West and Middle Tennessee, including Maury, Montgomery and Williamson. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +17.8 to Trump +23.1 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗

def. Maryam Abolfazli (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

Fundraising

BandRATIO TO 1Parity1 to 5Lean5 and above

3.6 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026 · thru Jul 17

Chaz Molder$2.60M ↗$1.48M cash

Charlie Hatcher$719.5K ↗$104.8K cash

Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 17, 2026; Molder leads 3.6 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.