Elections Intelligence

Florida Governor

OPEN SEAT
LIKELY R
David Jolly Democratic · Open-seat nominee
KALSHI PARTY MARKETCHECKED Aug 27
19¢REPUBLICAN 83¢
View market on Kalshi ↗
Byron Donalds Republican · Open-seat nominee
Also on the ballot: Dean Ocean Abrams (I), Charles Burkett (I), Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto (I), Moliere "Moe" Dimanche (I), Desmond Meade (I), Frank J. Russo (I), Scott Eckhard Jewett (L), Kathy Anderson (other), David "DJ" DeJesus (other), Richard Paul Dembinsky (other), M.W. Khan (other) and Erik Morris (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 19-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 83¢ today.

Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Polling · Lean RR+7 — Targoz, Aug 6. Market · Likely RR 83¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold. Prior result · Likely RR+19.4 in 2022.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
Polling moved 5.9 points toward the Republican over 21 days.
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 83¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
R+7
Targoz ↗ C+ Jul 20 - 26, 26 · n=1,026 LV R+7 INDEPENDENT
Univ. of North Florida ↗ A Jul 8 - 17, 26 · n=848 LV R+5 INDEPENDENT
Change Research ↗ C- Jul 9 - 11 · n=1,348 RV EVEN D SPONSOR
PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+19.4

Ron DeSantis / Jeanette Nuñez (R)

59.37 — 39.97 · 2022 general election

def. Charlie Crist / Karla Hernández-Mats (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
2.2 to 1
David Jolly$6.38M
Byron Donalds$13.79M

PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 08-13 · STATE FILING

Total receipts this cycle.

BALLOT & DATES Primary 08-18 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 R settled · D settled · I no primary · L settled · other no primary COMPARE THE CANDIDATES ⇄