FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: a 19-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 78¢ today.
Lean R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Lean RR+5.7 (average of 6 pollsters, Oct 7).Market · Lean RR 78¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+19.4 in 2022.PollsR+5.7MarketR 78¢2022 resultR+19.4
MarketR 78¢PollsR+5.72022R+19.4
Market and polls both favor Donalds.
Polling moved 3.1 points toward the Republican over 28 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Average of the latest poll from each of 6 pollsters in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Change Res. ↗C-Sep 7 to 9 · n=1,107 LVD+3Freedom Project USA sponsorD+3 · Freedom Project USA sponsor · counts as D+1 at half weight
Hart Research ↗Aug 10 to Aug 13 · n=600 LVD+1Democratic Governors Association sponsorD+1 · Democratic Governors Association sponsor · counts as R+1 at half weight