FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 19-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 84¢ today.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Lean RR+6 (Lake Research (adjusted), Sep 3).Market · Likely RR 84¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+18.55 in 2024.PollsR+6MarketR 84¢2024 resultR+18.6
MarketR 84¢PollsR+62024R+18.6
Market and polls both favor Hudson.
The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
R+6
Lake Research ↗B+Aug 31 to Sep 3 · n=400 LVR+4Sponsor unconfirmed (reported as a Democratic internal)R+4 · Sponsor unconfirmed (reported as a Democratic internal) · counts as R+6 at half weight
The latest poll on file. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+18.6
Richard Hudson (R)
56.3% to 37.8% · 2024 general election
def. Nigel W. Bristow (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Hudson leads 1.4 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.