North Carolina 9th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 19-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 81¢ today.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Lean RR 81¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+18.55 in 2024.

Signal clarityLow — no pollingas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 81¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+18.55

Richard Hudson (R)

56.3 — 37.75 · 2024 general election

def. Nigel William Bristow (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.4 to 1

Richard N. Ojeda II$2.24M

Richard Hudson$3.22M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.