South Carolina 4th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Jessica Ethridge (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market has run well past this seat's history — a 23-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 96¢ today.
Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Fundraising · Lean RR 48.37-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Likely RR+22.5 in 2024.Market · Safe RR 96¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 96¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+22.5
William R. Timmons IV (R)
59.73 — 37.23 · 2024 general election
def. Kathryn Harvey (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 48.37 to 1
Courtney McClain$33.0K
William R. Timmons IV$1.60M
PULLED 08-25 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.