Scott DesJarlais

TN-4

INCUMBENT Safe R Strong favorite

What the Signal reads

Safe R

DesJarlais is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has DesJarlais at 97.9¢ against Broderick's 1.2¢, up 3.1¢ since August 3. DesJarlais leads 6.3 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

DesJarlais · Republican contract

97.9¢

▲ 3.1¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Scott DesJarlais by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 98¢ · low 94.8¢Oct 12

Scott DesJarlaisRepublican · incumbent

97.9¢

Victoria BroderickDemocratic

1.2¢

7,664 traded · 6,083 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

DesJarlais v Broderick

Metric by metric

DesJarlais

Broderick

97.9¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

1.2¢

$536.8K

RaisedFEC, through July 17 and September 30

$83.9K

$495.1K

Cash on handFEC, through July 17 and September 30

$8.6K

U.S. Representativesince 2011

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Tennessee 4th District

Prior result

R+43.2

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Scott DesJarlais.

Fundraising

6.3 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through September 30.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+43.6 → R+23.9

Tennessee redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 7003, signed on May 7, 2026. The plan splits Shelby County, home to Memphis, among the 5th, 8th and 9th districts. It becomes much less Republican, going from Trump +43.6 to Trump +23.9 in the 2024 presidential vote.

The record this is read from ↗