FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Republican by 2 points in 2020 is now priced for the Democrat.
Likely D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 95.8¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Lean DD+8.7 (average of 11 pollsters, Oct 8).Prior result · Toss-upR+1.75 in 2020.MarketD 95.8¢PollsD+8.72020 resultR+1.8
MarketD 95.8¢PollsD+8.72020R+1.8
Market and polls both favor Cooper.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Cooper leads 3.1 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.