North Carolina U.S. Senate — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by 2 points in 2020 is now priced for the Democrat.

Likely D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Likely DD 92.9¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Lean DD+5 — High Point University, Aug 22.Prior result · Toss-upR+1.75 in 2020.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

Polling moved 4 points toward the Republican over 24 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 92.9¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+5

High Point University ↗ B- Aug 14 - 18 · n=1,119 LV D+5 INDEPENDENT

Harper Polling ↗ B+ Aug 9 - 10 · n=600 LV D+12.5 R SPONSOR

YouGov ↗ B+ Jul 23 - 31 · n=466 LV D+11 PARTISAN

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+1.75

Thom Tillis (R)

48.69 — 46.94 · 2020 general election

def. Cal Cunningham (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

3.1 to 1

Roy Cooper$34.98M

Michael Whatley$11.27M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.