Colorado 4th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 12-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 69¢ today.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Fundraising · Lean DD 10.24-to-1 in receipts.Market · Lean RR 69¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Lean RR+11.6 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 69¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+11.6

Lauren Boebert (R)

53.64 — 42.04 · 2024 general election

def. Trisha Calvarese (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 10.24 to 1

Eileen Laubacher$10.35M

Lauren Boebert$1.01M

PULLED 08-03 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.