FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: an 11-point Republican hold in 2020, priced at 63¢ today.
Toss-up
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upD+1.9 (average of 8 pollsters, Oct 10).Market · Toss-upR 63¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Lean RR+11.43 in 2020.PollsD+1.9MarketR 63¢2020 resultR+11.4
MarketR 63¢PollsD+1.92020R+11.4
Market favors Marshall, but polls favor Hamilton.
The market moved 4¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days · polling moved 6 points toward the Democrat over 30 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
GSG ↗B-Sep 13 to 16 · n=800 LVD+4Democratic Attorneys General Association sponsorD+4 · Democratic Attorneys General Association sponsor · counts as D+2 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of 8 pollsters in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
PPP ↗BAug 7 to 8 · n=569 votersR+1A Democratic super PAC (not named in the report) sponsorR+1 · A Democratic super PAC (not named in the report) sponsor · counts as R+3 at half weight
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 15, 2026; the two campaigns have raised about the same, so fundraising takes no place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.