Kansas U.S. Senate — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 11-point Republican hold in 2020, priced at 83¢ today.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Toss-upR+1 — PPP, Aug 12.Prior result · Lean RR+11.43 in 2020.Market · Likely RR 83¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 83¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+1

PPP ↗ B Aug 7 - 8 · n=569 V R+1 D SPONSOR

GBAO ↗ B Jul 8 - 13 · n=600 LV R+4 D SPONSOR

Tavern Research ↗ Jan 26 - 28 · n=1,013 LV D+2 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+11.43

Marshall, Roger (R)

53.22 — 41.79 · 2020 general election

def. Bollier, Barbara (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1 to 1

Adam Hamilton$4.17M

Roger Marshall$4.01M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-15 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.