FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 6-point Democratic hold in 2022, priced at 95.3¢ today.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 95.3¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Likely DD+11.5 (average of 5 pollsters, Oct 5).Prior result · Lean DD+6.39 in 2022.MarketD 95.3¢PollsD+11.52022 resultD+6.4
MarketD 95.3¢PollsD+11.52022D+6.4
Market and polls both favor Hochul.
Polling moved 8.8 points toward the Democrat over 35 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Total receipts, as filed through July 11, 2026.What these filings sayJoint gubernatorial ticket committee, figures cover the ticket, not the individual; figures cover the stated reporting period.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.