New York Governor — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market and the latest general-election poll carry this seat — New York has no verified prior result on file.

Likely D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Likely DD 94.3¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Likely DD+10 — Siena College, Aug 12.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days · polling moved 4 points toward the Democrat over 37 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 94.3¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+10

Siena College ↗ A+ Aug 3 - 6, 26 · n=811 LV D+10 INDEPENDENT

Red Oak Strategic ↗ Jul 7 - 12, 26 · n=2,000 RV D+4 R SPONSOR

co/efficient ↗ B Jun 30 - Jul 2, 26 · n=625 LV D+6 R SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

—

No verified prior result

The last general election in this seat has not been imported from an official state canvass, so the signal has no baseline.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.2 to 1

Kathy Hochul$9.40M

Bruce Blakeman$10.86M

PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 07-11 · STATE FILING

Total receipts this cycle.