New Mexico U.S. Senate — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 6-point Democratic hold in 2020, priced at 97.6¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 97.6¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 167.83-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Lean DD+6.11 in 2020.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 97.6¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

Research & Polling Inc. ↗ A+ Apr 17 - 24 · n=534 LV · D PRIMARY D+60 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+6.11

Lujan, Ben R. (D)

51.73 — 45.62 · 2020 general election

def. Ronchetti, Mark V. (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 167.83 to 1

Ben Ray Luján$5.63M

Larry Marker$33.5K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.