FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 6-point Democratic hold in 2020, priced at 98¢ today.
Likely D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 98¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Likely DD+16.5 (average of 2 pollsters, Sep 30).Fundraising · Lean DD 167.83-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Lean DD+6.11 in 2020.MarketD 98¢PollsD+16.5FundraisingD 167.83 to 12020 resultD+6.1
MarketD 98¢PollsD+16.52020D+6.1FundraisingD 167.83 to 1
Market and polls both favor Luján.
Polling moved 3 points toward the Democrat over 33 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above