California 9th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 4-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 96¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 96¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 78.26-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Toss-upD+3.6 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 96¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+3.6

Josh Harder (D)

51.8 — 48.2 · 2024 general election

def. Kevin Lincoln (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 78.26 to 1

Josh Harder$4.08M

John McBride$52.2K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.