FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 4-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 92.9¢ today.
Lean D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Likely DD 92.9¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Toss-upD+4.16 in 2024.Polling · Toss-upD+3.6 (average of 3 pollsters, Oct 9).MarketD 92.9¢2024 resultD+4.2PollsD+3.6
MarketD 92.9¢PollsD+3.62024D+4.2
Market and polls both favor Vasquez.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
SurveyUSA ↗A+Aug 28 to Sep 2 · n=554 LVD+3Independent
co/efficient (R) ↗April 26 to 28, 2026 · n=879 LVD+2NRCC sponsorD+2 · NRCC sponsor · counts as D+4 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+4.2
Gabe Vasquez (D)
52.1% to 47.9% · 2024 general election
def. Yvette Herrell (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Vasquez leads 2.5 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.