New Mexico 2nd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 4-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 91.9¢ today.

Lean D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Likely DD 91.9¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Toss-upD+4.16 in 2024.Polling · Toss-upD+2 — NRCC Co/efficient, May 8.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 91.9¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+2

NRCC Co/efficient ↗ B Apr 26 - 28 · n=800 RV D+2 R SPONSOR

co/efficient (R) ↗ April 26–28, 2026 · n=879 LV D+2 R SPONSOR

co/efficient ↗ 04-28 · n=879 LV D+2 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+4.16

Gabe Vasquez (D)

52.08 — 47.92 · 2024 general election

def. Yvette Herrell (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

2.5 to 1

Gabe Vasquez$3.78M

Greg Cunningham$1.51M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.