Elections Intelligence

Leticia Gutierrez

TX-9U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Likely R Underdog
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Likely R

Gutierrez is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Gutierrez at 20¢ against Mealer's 82¢, unchanged since August 3. The polling average has Mealer ahead by 8 points, and Mealer leads 37.5 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Gutierrez · Democratic contract
20.0¢
Unchangedsince August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Leticia Gutierrez by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 20¢ · low 14¢Oct 12
Leticia GutierrezDemocratic
20.0¢
Alex MealerRepublican
82.0¢

23,799 traded · 14,903 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Gutierrez v Mealer

Metric by metric
Gutierrez
Mealer
20.0¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
82.0¢
$55.4K
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$2.08M
$18.7K
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$362.0K
39%
Latest pollPPP, Gutierrez sponsor · Sep 19
45%
No office on file
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Texas 9th District
Latest poll
R+8

PPP, Gutierrez sponsor, September 19.

Prior result
D+100.0

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Al Green.

Fundraising
37.5 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.