Mike Kennedy
UT-4What the Signal reads
Kennedy is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Kennedy at 97.3¢ against Larsen's 5.9¢, up 1.6¢ since August 3. The polling average has Kennedy ahead by 8.8 points, and Kennedy leads 18.1 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Mike Kennedy by name.
5,228 traded · 3,506 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Kennedy v Larsen
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Utah 4th DistrictLighthoust Research, September 17.
2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Burgess Owens.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+19.3 → R+41.4
A Utah judge struck down the Legislature's map for violating Proposition 4, the anti-gerrymandering measure voters passed, and on Nov. 10, 2025, picked a map submitted by the plaintiffs for 2026. It becomes much more Republican, going from Trump +19.3 to Trump +41.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.