Jay Feely
AZ-1What the Signal reads
Lean D
Feely is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Lean D. The market has Feely at 23¢ against Shah's 78¢, down 2¢ since July 31. The polling average has Shah ahead by 2.8 points, and Feely leads 1.3 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Feely · Republican contract
23.0¢
▼ 2.0¢since July 31
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Jay Feely by name.
105,477 traded · 73,750 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Feely v Shah
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Arizona 1st DistrictLatest poll
D+2.8
FirstStrat. CPA, October 1.
Prior result
R+3.8
2024 general election, won by David Schweikert.
Fundraising
1.3 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 1.