Pennsylvania 1st District · Elections Intelligence

FTP Race Signal

FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.

The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: a 13-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 64¢ today.

Toss-up

Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R

Polling · Toss-upR+2.5 (average of 3 pollsters, Oct 8).Market · Toss-upR 64¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+12.8 in 2024.

Market and polls both favor Fitzpatrick.

Polling moved 5 points toward the Republican over 36 days. As of October 12.

Market

BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 64¢

Kalshi party market · checked 2:09 PM ET

View market on Kalshi ↗

Polling

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above

R+2.5

GSG ↗ B- Oct 1 to 8 · n=1,032 LV EVEN D-leaning firm

Public Op. Strategy ↗ A- Sep 11 to 14 · n=400 RV R+9 R sponsor R+9 · R sponsor · counts as R+7 at half weight

GQR ↗ A Aug 19 to 23 · n=400 LV R+1 House Majority PAC sponsor R+1 · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as R+3 at half weight

Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.

Earlier polls · 3

GSG ↗ B- Aug 5 to 9 · n=500 LV R+4 Harvie sponsor R+4 · Harvie sponsor · counts as R+6 at half weight

Global Strategy Group (D) ↗ March 19 to 22, 2026 · n=400 LV R+6 Harvie sponsor R+6 · Harvie sponsor · counts as R+8 at half weight

Global Strategy Group ↗ Mar 31 · n=400 LV R+6 Harvie campaign sponsor

Prior result

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above

R+12.8

Brian K. Fitzpatrick (R)

56.4% to 43.6% · 2024 general election

def. Ashley Ehasz (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

Fundraising

BandRATIO TO 1Parity1 to 5Lean5 and above

3.3 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026 · thru Jun 30

Bob Harvie$2.01M ↗$794.9K cash

Brian K. Fitzpatrick$6.73M ↗$6.36M cash

Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Fitzpatrick leads 3.3 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.