Pennsylvania 1st District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Tracy Hunt (D), Robert Strickler (D), John Hoban (I) and Jamie Frost Remmey (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 13-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 56¢ today.
Toss-up
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Toss-upR 56¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Polling · Toss-upR+4 — GSG, Aug 19.Prior result · Likely RR+12.8 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 3¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 56¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
R+4
GSG ↗ B-
Aug 5 - 9 · n=500 LV
R+4
D SPONSOR
GSG ↗ B-
Mar 19 - 22 · n=400 LV
R+4
D SPONSOR
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+12.8
[[Brian Fitzpatrick (American politician) (R)
56.4 — 43.6 · 2024 general election
def. Ashley Ehasz (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
3.4 to 1
Bob Harvie$2.01M
Brian K. Fitzpatrick$6.73M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.