Wisconsin 6th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Matthew Arendt (G), Elizabeth Anne Fitzgibbon (I) and Mike Thurow (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 23-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 94.7¢ today.
Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Likely RR+22.57 in 2024.Market · Likely RR 94.7¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 94.7¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+22.57
Glenn Grothman (R)
61.23 — 38.66 · 2024 general election
def. John Zarbano (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
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PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-22 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.