OPEN SEATLikely RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedTexas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. Much of its Dallas electorate is replaced with territory to the east and north. The new lines flip the district, going from Harris +23.8 to Trump +17.8 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Julie Johnson (D) has held this seat since 2025 and is not running; the district was redrawn in September 2025.
PresidentialD+23.8→R+17.8Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (D+23.8) and the new (R+17.8). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in September 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 89¢ Republican.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Prior result · Likely DD+23.49 in 2024.Fundraising · Lean RR 8.97-to-1 in receipts.Market · Likely RR 89¢: traders' price for a Republican win, a flip from Democratic.2024 resultD+23.5FundraisingR 8.97 to 1MarketR 89¢
MarketR 89¢2024D+23.5FundraisingR 8.97 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Yarbrough.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
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Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+23.5
Julie Johnson (D)
60.5% to 37.0% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesTexas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. Much of its Dallas electorate is replaced with territory to the east and north. The new lines flip the district, going from Harris +23.8 to Trump +17.8 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Darrell Day (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.