Texas 32nd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Democratic by 23 points in 2024 is now priced for the Republican.

Likely R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Prior result · Likely DD+23.49 in 2024.Fundraising · Lean RR 9.17-to-1 in receipts.Market · Likely RR 83¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 83¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+23.49

Julie Johnson (D)

60.45 — 36.97 · 2024 general election

def. Darrell Day (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

R 9.17 to 1

Dan Barrios$94.4K

Jace Yarbrough$865.9K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.