OPEN SEATSafe DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Its partisan lean barely changes (Harris +13.2 to Harris +15.3 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
Julia Brownley (D) has held this seat since 2013 and is not running; the district was redrawn in August 2025.
PresidentialD+13.2→D+15.3Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (D+13.2) and the new (D+15.3). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in August 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 98.8¢ Democratic.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 98.8¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Likely DD+12.2 in 2024.MarketD 98.8¢2024 resultD+12.2
MarketD 98.8¢2024D+12.2
No public polls. The market favors Irwin.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
—
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+12.2
Julia Brownley (D)
56.1% to 43.9% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Its partisan lean barely changes (Harris +13.2 to Harris +15.3 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
def. Michael S. Koslow (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Irwin leads 2.1 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.