FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Democratic by 2 points in 2022 is now priced for the Republican.
Lean R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Prior result · Toss-upD+2.21 in 2022.Polling · Toss-upR+4.2 (average of 5 pollsters, Oct 4).Market · Lean RR 75¢: traders' price for a Republican win, a flip from Democratic.2022 resultD+2.2PollsR+4.2MarketR 75¢
MarketR 75¢PollsR+4.22022D+2.2
Market and polls both favor Masterson.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days · polling moved 5 points toward the Democrat over 24 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
GSG ↗B-Sep 13 to 16 · n=800 LVD+3Democratic Attorneys General Association sponsorD+3 · Democratic Attorneys General Association sponsor · counts as D+1 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of 5 pollsters in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
GSG ↗B-Aug 13 to 16 · n=600 LVD+1Sponsor unconfirmed (released by the Holscher campaign)D+1 · Sponsor unconfirmed (released by the Holscher campaign) · counts as R+1 at half weight
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+2.2
Laura Kelly (D)
49.5% to 47.3% · 2022 general election
def. Vicki Schmidt (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.