Kansas Governor — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Democratic by 2 points in 2022 is now priced for the Republican.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Prior result · Toss-upD+2.21 in 2022.Market · Lean RR 66¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityLow — no pollingas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 66¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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Change Research ↗ C- Jun 11 - 15, 26 · n=1,022 LV · D PRIMARY D+27 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+2.21

Kelly, Laura (D)

49.54 — 47.33 · 2022 general election

def. Schmidt, Derek (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.9 to 1

Cindy Holscher$412.6K

Ty Masterson$766.5K

PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 07-23 · STATE FILING

Total receipts this cycle.