FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Republican by 19 points in 2022 is now priced for the Democrat.
Likely D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Likely DD 88¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Lean DD+8.7 (average of 7 pollsters, Oct 6).Prior result · Likely RR+18.51 in 2022.MarketD 88¢PollsD+8.72022 resultR+18.5
MarketD 88¢PollsD+8.72022R+18.5
Market and polls both favor Sand.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days · polling moved 6.3 points toward the Republican over 28 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Average of the latest poll from each of 7 pollsters in the last 30 days.
Earlier polls · 10
Cygnal ↗A+Sep 9 to 11 · n=500 LVD+3.4Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation sponsorD+3.4 · Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation sponsor · counts as D+5.4 at half weight
Cygnal ↗A+Jun 16 to 19 · n=600 LVD+4.3Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation sponsorD+4.3 · Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation sponsor · counts as D+6.3 at half weight
GSG ↗B-Apr 23 to 28D+9Sand sponsorD+9 · Sand sponsor · counts as D+7 at half weight
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+18.5
Kim Reynolds (R)
58.0% to 39.5% · 2022 general election
def. Deidre DeJear (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total contributions, as filed through July 14, 2026.What these filings sayThe headline figure is Schedule A: Cash Contributions Total, this period (DR-2 summary page) as published by Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board; it is not identical to total receipts as the FEC defines them.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.