Alabama U.S. Senate — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 20-point Republican hold in 2020, priced at 97¢ today.

Safe R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Likely RR+15 — Yes, every kid, Aug 4.Prior result · Likely RR+20.36 in 2020.Market · Safe RR 97¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 97¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+15

Yes, every kid ↗ Jul 8 - 11 · n=601 LV R+15 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+20.36

Tommy Tuberville (R)

60.1 — 39.74 · 2020 general election

def. Doug Jones (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Everett Wess$83.3K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.