FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 20-point Republican gain in 2020, priced at 97.9¢ today.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean RR 47.02-to-1 in receipts.Polling · Likely RR+16.3 (average of 2 pollsters, Sep 25).Prior result · Likely RR+20.36 in 2020.Market · Safe RR 97.9¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.FundraisingR 47.02 to 1PollsR+16.32020 resultR+20.4MarketR 97.9¢
MarketR 97.9¢PollsR+16.32020R+20.4FundraisingR 47.02 to 1
Market and polls both favor Moore.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Average of the latest poll from each of the 2 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+20.4
Tommy Tuberville (R)
60.1% to 39.7% · 2020 general election
def. Doug Jones (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.