John Braun · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Lean D

Braun is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Lean D. The market has Braun at 9.8¢ against Perez's 91.1¢, down 11.2¢ since August 3. The polling average has Braun ahead by 1.8 points, and Perez leads 3.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Braun · Republican contract

9.8¢

▼ 11.2¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on John Braun by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 21¢ · low 9.8¢Oct 12

John BraunRepublican

9.8¢

Marie Gluesenkamp PerezDemocratic · incumbent

91.1¢

177,636 traded · 137,217 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Braun v Perez

Metric by metric

Braun

Perez

9.8¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

91.1¢

$1.99M

RaisedFEC, through July 15

$6.29M

$1.06M

Cash on handFEC, through July 15

$2.06M

48%

Latest pollDHM Research, OPB sponsor · Sep 27

47%

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2023

The 2026 race

Washington 3rd District

Polling average

R+1.8

Average of 3 pollsters, April 29 to September 27.

Prior result

D+3.9

2024 general election, won by Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.

Fundraising

3.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.