Darren Soto
FL-9What the Signal reads
Soto is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Soto at 30¢ against Green's 72¢, up 6¢ since August 3. The polling average has Green ahead by 2 points, and Soto leads 1.6 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Darren Soto by name.
94,012 traded · 67,381 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Soto v Green
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Florida 9th DistrictSEA Polling, Soto sponsor, August 30.
2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Darren Soto.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 29.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+3.5 → R+17.8
Florida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. It now stretches from Orlando and Kissimmee into Indian River County and other interior counties. The new lines flip the district, going from Harris +3.5 to Trump +17.8 in the 2024 presidential vote.