Cait Conley
NY-17What the Signal reads
Toss-up
Conley is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Toss-up. The market has Conley at 59¢ against Lawler's 42¢, down 7¢ since August 3. The polling average has Lawler ahead by 1.3 points, and Lawler leads 1.8 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Conley · Democratic contract
59.0¢
▼ 7.0¢since August 3
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Cait Conley by name.
256,190 traded · 164,832 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Conley v Lawler
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
New York 17th DistrictPolling average
R+1.3
Average of 3 pollsters, July 22 to September 30.
Prior result
R+6.3
2024 general election, won by Michael Lawler.
Fundraising
1.8 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.