DEFENDED SEATLikely DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Communities are shuffled within this district, which spans Orange and Los Angeles counties. Its partisan lean barely changes (Harris +1.5 to Harris +3.9 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
Derek Tran (D) has held this seat since 2025 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in August 2025.
PresidentialD+1.5→D+3.9Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (D+1.5) and the new (D+3.9). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in August 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 92.7¢ Democratic.
Likely D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Likely DD 92.7¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 10.05-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Toss-upD+0.21 in 2024.MarketD 92.7¢FundraisingD 10.05 to 12024 resultD+0.2
MarketD 92.7¢2024D+0.2FundraisingD 10.05 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Tran.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
—
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+0.2
Derek Tran (D)
50.1% to 49.9% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Communities are shuffled within this district, which spans Orange and Los Angeles counties. Its partisan lean barely changes (Harris +1.5 to Harris +3.9 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
def. Michelle Steel (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.