California 45th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — decided by less than a point in 2024, priced at 92.8¢ today.

Likely D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Likely DD 92.8¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 10.05-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Toss-upD+0.21 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 92.8¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+0.21

Derek Tran (D)

50.1 — 49.9 · 2024 general election

def. Michelle Steel (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 10.05 to 1

Derek Tran$4.98M

Chuong Vo$495.8K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.