South Dakota Governor
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Terry Gleason (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 27-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 98¢ today.
Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Safe RR+26.81 in 2022.Market · Safe RR 98¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 98¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+26.81
Noem, Kristi (R)
61.98 — 35.17 · 2022 general election
def. Smith, Jamie (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
—
Dan Ahlers$59.2K
Larry Rhoden$169.6K
PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 05-18 · STATE FILING
Cash on hand at the period end, not money raised.