Elections Intelligence

Georgia 6th District

DEFENDED SEAT
SAFE D
Lucy McBath Democratic · Incumbent
KALSHI PARTY MARKETCHECKED Aug 27
DEMOCRAT 97.3¢7.4¢
View market on Kalshi ↗
Kevin E. Martin Republican · Challenger
FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 49-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 97.3¢ today.

Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Safe DD+49.37 in 2024. Market · Safe DD 97.3¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold. Fundraising · Lean DD 86.9-to-1 in receipts.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 97.3¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+49.37

Lucy McBath (D)

74.68 — 25.32 · 2024 general election

def. Jeff Criswell (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
D 86.9 to 1
Lucy McBath$896.9K
Kevin E. Martin$10.3K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 03-31 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.

BALLOT & DATES Primary 05-19 · HELDRunoff 06-16 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 D settled · R settled COMPARE THE CANDIDATES ⇄