California 52nd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 33-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 97.5¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 97.5¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Safe DD+32.62 in 2024.Fundraising · Lean DD 22.3-to-1 in receipts.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 97.5¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+32.62

Juan Vargas (D)

66.31 — 33.69 · 2024 general election

def. Justin Lee (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 22.3 to 1

Juan Vargas$568.5K

Jeff Belle$25.5K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.