DEFENDED SEATSafe DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It becomes somewhat less Democratic, going from Harris +21.2 to Harris +17.6 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Juan Vargas (D) has held this seat since 2023 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in August 2025.
PresidentialD+21.2→D+17.6Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (D+21.2) and the new (D+17.6). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in August 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 97.1¢ Democratic.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 97.1¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Safe DD+32.62 in 2024.Fundraising · Lean DD 22.3-to-1 in receipts.MarketD 97.1¢2024 resultD+32.6FundraisingD 22.3 to 1
MarketD 97.1¢2024D+32.6FundraisingD 22.3 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Vargas.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
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Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+32.6
Juan Vargas (D)
66.3% to 33.7% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It becomes somewhat less Democratic, going from Harris +21.2 to Harris +17.6 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Justin Lee (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.