North Carolina 3rd District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Daniel Cavender (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 55-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 93.4¢ today.
Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Fundraising · Lean RR 10.57-to-1 in receipts.Market · Likely RR 93.4¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+54.77 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 93.4¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+54.77
Greg Murphy (R)
77.38 — 22.62 · 2024 general election
def. Gheorghe Cormos (L). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 10.57 to 1
Raymond Smith$223.1K
Gregory F. Murphy$2.36M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.