DEFENDED SEATLikely RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedNorth Carolina's legislature redrew two districts in October 2025 (SB 249) by moving counties between the 1st and 3rd districts. The 3rd takes in Greene, Lenoir, Wayne and Wilson counties and gives Beaufort, Carteret, Craven, Dare, Hyde and Pamlico counties to the 1st. It becomes somewhat less Republican, going from Trump +21.9 to Trump +13.6 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Gregory F. Murphy (R) has held this seat since September 2019, after a special election, and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in October 2025.
PresidentialR+21.9→R+13.6Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+21.9) and the new (R+13.6). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in October 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 84¢ Republican.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Lean RR+5 (Tulchin Research (adjusted), Aug 2).Fundraising · Lean RR 10.57-to-1 in receipts.Market · Likely RR 84¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.PollsR+5FundraisingR 10.57 to 1MarketR 84¢
MarketR 84¢PollsR+5FundraisingR 10.57 to 1
Market and polls both favor Murphy.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
R+5
Tulchin Research ↗B-Jul 27 to Aug 2 · n=600 LVR+3House Majority PAC sponsorR+3 · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as R+5 at half weight
The latest poll on file. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
Murphy +54.8
Murphy won 77.4% to 22.6% over Gheorghe Cormos (Libertarian) (2024)
2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesNorth Carolina's legislature redrew two districts in October 2025 (SB 249) by moving counties between the 1st and 3rd districts. The 3rd takes in Greene, Lenoir, Wayne and Wilson counties and gives Beaufort, Carteret, Craven, Dare, Hyde and Pamlico counties to the 1st. It becomes somewhat less Republican, going from Trump +21.9 to Trump +13.6 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Result verified against retrieved official results.