Indiana 8th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 39-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 97¢ today.

Safe R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe RR 97¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+38.51 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 97¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+38.51

Mark Messmer (R)

67.96 — 29.45 · 2024 general election

def. Erik Hurt (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

4 to 1

Mary Allen$294.5K

Mark B. Messmer$1.17M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.