Rhode Island 2nd District — Elections Intelligence

THE MATCHUP PRIMARY SEP 09 DECIDES THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE

PRIMARY · SEP 09 · DEMOCRATIC NO MARKET

Decides which Democrat appears on the November ballot.

No market prices this primary · 2 Democrats have filed

NOV 3 · THE GENERAL ELECTION KXHOUSERACE-RI02-26 ↗

The settled side holds the Republican nomination. The party market prices the seat, not the people — it carries whichever Democrat wins on September 9, 2026.

DEMOCRAT 99.7¢7.3¢

KALSHI PARTY MARKET · CHECKED 08/27Democratic nomineeDetermined by the primary on September 9, 2026Republican nomineeDetermined by the primary on September 9, 2026

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 17-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 99.7¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 99.7¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Likely DD+16.72 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 99.7¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+16.72

Seth Magaziner (D)

58.24 — 41.51 · 2024 general election

def. Stephen Joseph Corvi (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Democratic nominee determined Sep 9, 2026.

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.