California 40th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

No market prices this seat, and the most recent general-election poll has the two within a point — a 11-point Republican hold in 2024.

Safe R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Toss-upR+0 — Tulchin Research, Jan 29.Prior result · Lean RR+10.52 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-01-29

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

—

No settling contract prices this race, so there is no market reading.

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+0

Tulchin Research ↗ B- Jan 14 - 19 · n=800 LV EVEN D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+10.52

Young Kim (R)

55.26 — 44.74 · 2024 general election

def. Joe Kerr (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.4 to 1

Ken Calvert$6.14M

Young Kim$8.84M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.