DEFENDED SEATSafe RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Just over half of the new district's population (51%) comes from the old 41st. The rest comes from parts of the old 40th and 48th. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +2.3 to Trump +12.2 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Young Kim (R) has held this seat since 2023 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in August 2025.
PresidentialR+2.3→R+12.2Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+2.3) and the new (R+12.2). Same ballots, new map.
Every candidate on the November ballot is a Republican, so the seat cannot change party. The seat verdict says nothing about which candidate wins; the number beside a candidate is that candidate's own contract.
FTP Race Signal
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
Both finalists are Republicans, so the seat stays Republican; the market favors Calvert.
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Prior result · Lean RR+10.52 in 2024.2024 resultR+10.5
2024R+10.5
Polls of two Republicans are not averaged. The latest, Grassroots Targ for Young Kim, September 5 to 9, had Kim ahead by 9. The market favors Calvert.
Polling moved 8 points toward the Republican over 20 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
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The Kalshi event on this seat prices named candidates rather than party control, so it answers who wins and not whether the seat changes hands. It gives the signal no reading; each candidate's own price is shown in the prediction market module.
Polling
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+10.5
Young Kim (R)
55.3% to 44.7% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Just over half of the new district's population (51%) comes from the old 41st. The rest comes from parts of the old 40th and 48th. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +2.3 to Trump +12.2 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Joe Kerr (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.