FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Republican by 25 points in 2022 is now priced for the Democrat.
Lean D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Lean DD 71¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Toss-upD+4.8 (average of 6 pollsters, Oct 6).Prior result · Safe RR+25.03 in 2022.MarketD 71¢PollsD+4.82022 resultR+25.0
MarketD 71¢PollsD+4.82022R+25.0
Market and polls both favor Acton.
The market moved 5¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days · polling moved 5 points toward the Republican over 26 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Tulchin Research ↗B-Jul 29 to Aug 4 · n=600 LVD+2John Kulewicz campaign (Ohio AG) sponsorD+2 · John Kulewicz campaign (Ohio AG) sponsor · counts as EVEN at half weight
NYT/Siena ↗A+Jun 15 to 28 · n=601 LVEVENIndependent
Tulchin Research ↗B-Jun 12 · n=600 LVD+3John Kulewicz campaign (Ohio AG) sponsorD+3 · John Kulewicz campaign (Ohio AG) sponsor · counts as D+1 at half weight
Total receipts, as filed through July 31, 2026.What these filings sayJoint gubernatorial ticket committee, figures cover the ticket, not the individual; figures cover the stated reporting period.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.