Hawaii 2nd District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Edward "Ed" Codelia (other) and Randall A. Terry (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 36-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 97.3¢ today.
Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Safe DD+36.29 in 2024.Market · Safe DD 97.3¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 6.69-to-1 in receipts.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 97.3¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+36.29
Jill N. Tokuda (D)
66.46 — 30.17 · 2024 general election
def. Steve Bond (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
D 6.69 to 1
Jill N. Tokuda$820.7K
Brenton Awa$122.6K
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-19 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.