California 6th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

No market prices this seat. The most recent general-election poll puts the Democrat ahead by 4 points — a 15-point Democratic hold in 2024.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Prior result · Likely DD+15.2 in 2024.Polling · Toss-upD+4 — The Bullfinch Group, Jul 28.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-07-28

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

—

No settling contract prices this race, so there is no market reading.

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+4

The Bullfinch Group ↗ C- Jul 13 - 16 · n=546 LV D+4 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+15.2

Ami Bera (D)

57.6 — 42.4 · 2024 general election

def. Christine Bish (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

2.7 to 1

Richard Pan$1.10M

Kevin Kiley$2.99M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.