OPEN SEATSafe D to Lean DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It sends Sacramento voters to the 3rd District and takes in territory that used to be in the 3rd. It becomes somewhat less Democratic, going from Harris +13.9 to Harris +8.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Ami Bera (D) has held this seat since 2023 and is not running; the district was redrawn in August 2025.
PresidentialD+13.9→D+8.4Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (D+13.9) and the new (D+8.4). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in August 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 93.3¢ Democratic.
Lean D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Likely DD 93.3¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Likely DD+15.2 in 2024.Polling · Toss-upPan +2.2 (The Bullfinch Group (adjusted) Pan +2.2, Sep 6).MarketD 93.3¢2024 resultD+15.2PollsPan +2.2
MarketD 93.3¢PollsPan +2.22024D+15.2
Market and polls both favor Pan.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+15.2
Ami Bera (D)
57.6% to 42.4% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It sends Sacramento voters to the 3rd District and takes in territory that used to be in the 3rd. It becomes somewhat less Democratic, going from Harris +13.9 to Harris +8.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Christine Bish (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Kiley leads 2.7 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.