Arizona 9th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 31-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 96.8¢ today.

Safe R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Prior result · Safe RR+30.6 in 2024.Market · Safe RR 96.8¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 96.8¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+30.6

Paul Gosar (R)

65.3 — 34.7 · 2024 general election

def. Quacy Smith (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.6 to 1

Danielle “Dani” Sterbinsky$354.4K

Paul A. Gosar$580.0K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-01 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.