James E. Risch (R) has held this seat since 2009 and is running for re-election. Before that: Larry Craig (R). The November field carries no Democratic candidate. Independent Todd Achilles is the principal challenger.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: a 29-point Republican hold in 2020, priced at 94.4¢ today.
Lean R
Safe ILikely ILean IToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upRisch +1.9 (average of 3 pollsters Risch +1.9, Sep 30).Market · Likely RR 94.4¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+29.37 in 2020.PollsRisch +1.9MarketR 94.4¢2020 resultR+29.4
MarketR 94.4¢PollsRisch +1.92020R+29.4
Market and polls both favor Risch.
Polling moved 9 points toward Achilles over 48 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Bullfinch ↗Aug 4 to 7 · n=608 LVAchilles +5Achilles sponsorAchilles +5 · Achilles sponsor · counts as Achilles +3 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Earlier polls · 3
Peak Insights ↗Aug 11 to 13 · n=500 LVRisch +34Risch sponsorRisch +34 · Risch sponsor · counts as Risch +32 at half weight
Bullfinch ↗Aug 4 to 7 · n=608 LVRisch +4Achilles sponsorRisch +4 · Achilles sponsor · counts as Risch +6 at half weight
Change Research ↗C-Jul 28 to 30 · n=606 LVRisch +22Stegner sponsorRisch +22 · Stegner sponsor · counts as Risch +24 at half weight
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+29.4
James E. Risch (R)
62.6% to 33.3% · 2020 general election
def. Paulette Jordan (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Risch leads 4.8 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.