South Carolina Governor
OPEN SEAT
Also on the ballot: Walid Hakim (G).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market and the latest general-election poll carry this seat — South Carolina has no verified prior result on file.
Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Polling · Lean RR+8 — Hart Research, Aug 27.Market · Safe RR 95.9¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 95.9¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
R+8
PPP ↗ B
Jul 16 - 17, 26 · n=577 V
R+8
D SPONSOR
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
—
No verified prior result
The last general election in this seat has not been imported from an official state canvass, so the signal has no baseline.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
—
Jermaine Johnson$172.3K
Alan Wilson$860.7K
PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 06-30 · STATE FILING
Cash on hand at the period end, not money raised.