FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 17-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 94.1¢ today.
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Likely RR+10 (average of 2 pollsters, Oct 3).Prior result · Likely RR+17.37 in 2022.Market · Likely RR 94.1¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.PollsR+102022 resultR+17.4MarketR 94.1¢
MarketR 94.1¢PollsR+102022R+17.4
Market and polls both favor Wilson.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Hart Research ↗A-Aug 12 to 15 · n=600 LVR+8Johnson sponsorR+8 · Johnson sponsor · counts as R+10 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 2 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+17.4
Henry McMaster (R)
58.0% to 40.7% · 2022 general election
def. Joe Cunningham (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.