Why Louisiana's House races are different this year

No party nominees. Everyone runs on November 3, and if no one tops 50%, the top two meet on December 12.

Apr 29Supreme Court decides Louisiana v. Callais; the 2024 map is struck down
Apr 30Governor suspends the House party primaries of May 16 and June 27
May 14Act 7: one open primary on Nov 3, runoff on Dec 12, for the House only
May 29New map signed (Act 2, SB 121); the 6th District is redrawn
Aug 5 to 7Qualifying: 39 candidates across six seats
Nov 3Open primary: every candidate on one ballot
Dec 12Runoff between the top two, if needed

Louisiana's Senate race stayed on the closed-primary track: Julia Letlow (R) v Jamie Davis (D). Sources: supremecourt.gov (24-109); gov.louisiana.gov/news/5093; legis.la.gov (HB 842, Act 7); legis.la.gov (SB 121, Act 2); Louisiana Secretary of State candidate list for November 3. Party contract prices: Kalshi, October 12.

Open primary · November 3 · runoff December 12

Louisiana 6th District

OPEN SEATSafe R to Likely RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedLouisiana redrew its map after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the previous one in Louisiana v. Callais on April 29, 2026. The new plan (SB 121) was signed on May 29, 2026. The old Baton Rouge-to-Shreveport corridor is replaced with a district centered on Baton Rouge. The new lines flip the district, going from Harris +15 to Trump +30.1 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗

Cleo Fields (D) has held this seat since 2025 and is not on the November ballot; the district was redrawn in May 2026.

PresidentialD+15→R+30.1Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (D+15) and the new (R+30.1). Same ballots, new map.

Democratic-held · 10 candidates · Redrawn for 2026: Baton Rouge with Livingston and Ascension. Trump carried the new lines by more than 30 points.

Kalshi · which party wins the seat

6.1¢REPUBLICAN 93.8¢

A party contract: it holds whoever the Republican is. View market on Kalshi ↗

How this race is decided

A candidate with more than half the vote on November 3 wins outright. Otherwise the top two, of any party, meet on December 12.

6 Republicans · 3 Democrats · 1 Libertarian

Chauna Banks 18.8%

Rick Edmonds 15.6%

Blake Miguez 8.6%

Patrick "Pat" Forbes 8.4%

Larry Davis III 6.0%

Undecided40.4%

Not in the poll:Monique Appeaning Michael Mebruer Stephen Wagley Lindsay "Rubia" Garcia Rufus Craig

Greg Rigamer, Aug 12 to 13, 2026, 500 RV, ±4.4 Sponsored Paid for by lobbyist Alton Ashy and one unnamed backer. Lindsay "Rubia" Garcia was not tested. NOLA.com, Aug 22, 2026 ↗

FTP Race Signal

FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.

This district was redrawn in May 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 93.8¢ Republican.

Likely R

Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R

Prior result · Likely DD+13.1 in 2024.Market · Likely RR 93.8¢: traders' price for a Republican win, a flip from Democratic.

One public poll of the field, not averaged. The market favors the Republicans.

The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days. As of October 12.

Market

BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 93.8¢

Kalshi party market · checked 2:09 PM ET

View market on Kalshi ↗

Polling

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above

—

One public poll of the field, shown above against the 50% line. An open primary has no pair, so no poll is averaged.

Prior result

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above

D+13.1

Cleo Fields (D)

50.8% to 37.7% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesLouisiana redrew its map after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the previous one in Louisiana v. Callais on April 29, 2026. The new plan (SB 121) was signed on May 29, 2026. The old Baton Rouge-to-Shreveport corridor is replaced with a district centered on Baton Rouge. The new lines flip the district, going from Harris +15 to Trump +30.1 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗

def. Elbert Guillory (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

Fundraising

BandRATIO TO 1Parity1 to 5Lean5 and above

2 of 10

2 of 10 candidates have a federal report on file; 8 not yet verified.

Candidate	Raised 2025 to 2026	Thru
Blake Miguez	$6.61M ↗incl. $3.01M candidate loans	Jul 18
Rick Edmonds	$512.1K ↗incl. $155.0K candidate loans	Jul 18
Monique Appeaning	Not yet verified
Larry Davis III	Not yet verified
Michael Mebruer	Not yet verified
Stephen Wagley	Not yet verified
Chauna Banks	Not yet verified
Patrick "Pat" Forbes	Not yet verified
Lindsay "Rubia" Garcia	Not yet verified
Rufus Craig	Not yet verified