Elections Intelligence

Hawaii 1st District

DEFENDED SEAT
SAFE D
Ed Case Democratic · Incumbent
KALSHI PARTY MARKETCHECKED Aug 27
DEMOCRAT 99.8¢2.4¢
View market on Kalshi ↗
Adriel Lam Republican · Challenger
FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 44-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 99.8¢ today.

Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Safe DD 99.8¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold. Prior result · Safe DD+43.68 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 99.8¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+43.68

Ed Case (D)

71.84 — 28.16 · 2024 general election

def. Patrick C. Largey (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
Ed Case$1.09M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-19 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.

BALLOT & DATES Primary 08-08 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 D settled · R settled COMPARE THE CANDIDATES ⇄