FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 28-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 98.2¢ today.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Lean RR+5 (Hendrix College, Aug 12).Prior result · Safe RR+27.76 in 2022.Market · Safe RR 98.2¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.PollsR+52022 resultR+27.8MarketR 98.2¢
MarketR 98.2¢PollsR+52022R+27.8
Market and polls both favor Sanders.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above