Arkansas Governor
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Colt Shelby (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market and the latest general-election poll carry this seat — Arkansas has no verified prior result on file.
Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Polling · Lean RR+5 — Hendrix College, Aug 18.Market · Safe RR 99.6¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 99.6¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
R+5
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
—
No verified prior result
The last general election in this seat has not been imported from an official state canvass, so the signal has no baseline.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
—
Fredrick Love$2.5K
Sarah Huckabee Sanders$5.11M
PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 07-31 · STATE FILING
Cash on hand at the period end, not money raised.