Elections Intelligence

Jon Ossoff

GAU.S. Senate S architectural icon
INCUMBENT Likely D Likely to win
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Likely D

Ossoff is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Likely D. The market has Ossoff at 95.4¢ against Collins's 4.9¢, up 4.8¢ since July 31. The polling average has Ossoff ahead by 8.5 points, and Ossoff leads 10.4 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Ossoff · Democratic contract
95.4¢
▲ 4.8¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Jon Ossoff by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 96.8¢ · low 90.6¢Oct 12
Jon OssoffDemocratic · incumbent
95.4¢
Mike CollinsRepublican
4.9¢

1,678,782 traded · 1,057,442 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Ossoff v Collins

Metric by metric
Ossoff
Collins
95.4¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
4.9¢
$77.28M
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$7.41M
$42.59M
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$2.08M
51%
Latest pollTrafalgar Group · Oct 9
43%
U.S. Senatorsince 2021
Holds now
U.S. Representativesince 2023

The 2026 race

Georgia U.S. Senate
Polling average
D+8.5

Average of 6 pollsters, September 16 to October 9.

Prior result
D+1.2

2021 general election, won by Jon Ossoff.

Fundraising
10.4 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.